MDF: the dawn of economic revitalization is about to emerge

　　In 2007, my country's fiberboard production capacity expanded sharply and the housing market and export tax rebates were subject to the tightening of national macroeconomic policies. In addition to the global financial crisis in September 2008, the fiberboard industry fell into a tormenting winter.

　　The butterfly effect of the financial crisis

The subprime mortgage crisis in the United States is like a butterfly instigating its wings and triggering a global financial hurricane. The financial crisis has made the situation of foreign trade export companies very serious. Affected by the global financial crisis, the MDF industry has suffered a double chill in export and domestic sales: 08 The annual export volume was 10.05 million cubic meters, a year-on-year decrease of 18%; domestic sales were blocked, and the product backlog was serious. The total backlog of wood-based panels and laminate flooring products nationwide was as high as 8 million cubic meters; the company’s business was in trouble, closed and stopped production. Board enterprises accounted for 60%.

　　 Statistics in the first quarter of 2009 show that my country’s fiberboard exports have fallen by more than half, and the impact of the financial crisis on the wood-based panel industry has not bottomed out. The first is the shrinking of exports. In the next two to three years, imports from major importing countries such as the United States, the European Union, and Japan will stagnate, or even see a large negative growth. Due to the large base, even a small percentage of negative growth will be affected. China's furniture exports have had a serious impact. Second, the domestic real estate downturn will continue for a period of time. Since 2008, high housing prices have suppressed people's desire for real estate demand, and the housing market has fallen into a downturn. Affected by this, furniture sales will inevitably be affected.

　　 Faced with such a severe situation in 2009, the MDF industry was even more difficult. Since the outbreak of the financial tsunami, the sales of MDF in the wood-based panel industry have been in a downturn.

　　U.S. CARB regulations and EU green barriers

The California CARB regulations of the United States were officially implemented on January 1 this year. The CARB regulations put forward higher requirements for the production and manufacture of composite wood products and finished products containing composite wood products (including furniture, wooden toys, wooden crafts, etc.) in China. At the same time, this involves the smooth export of products to the United States during the economic crisis, which is critical to the survival and development of enterprises.

It is understood that in order to reduce the risk of export foreign trade, many furniture companies have begun to use a large number of CARB-certified MDF or switch to other alternative panels to cope with the relevant inspection procedures. This is for those MDF that have not passed the CARB certification. For board companies, opening up the sales of furniture companies will add more difficulties. According to the reporter's investigation, these small and medium-sized factories are still on the sidelines. The quality of the equipment and products has not yet reached the CARB level, so these manufacturers have to stay away from the export line.

　　 Leaking house is rainy night, and the MDF industry is struggling to deal with CARB regulations. On April 22, the EU passed a bill aimed at strictly controlling the wood and wood products sold in the EU. The European Parliament has also adopted a number of specific recommendations to fully improve the legislative proposal, including requiring companies to ensure the legality of the wood products they sell, and establishing a wide range of sanctions and punishment mechanisms within the EU to discourage offenders. The proposal also suggests that sellers should actively move closer to selling legal timber. The European Union will complete this law before this summer and issue the final decree before the end of this year. Industry insiders believe that this bill may form a "green barrier" to China's wood products exports, especially wood-based panel exports will be severely affected. The solution is to actively move closer to FSC certification, otherwise many export to the EU Of wood product manufacturers may lose their European market.

　　 Prices bottomed out, struggling in the cold for a better tomorrow

Under the pressure of both export and domestic sales, MDF has been able to solve the inventory pressure caused by overcapacity since last year. In order to compete for market share, the price of MDF has been reduced to the bottom, although manufacturers tried to maintain production costs at the beginning of this year. , The price rebounded slightly, driving the market price of MDF to increase accordingly. According to industry insiders, the market price of MDF has no bubble. Even if the price is at the most reasonable range, due to the poor overall environment, it is difficult to pull up market demand, and the MDF market as a whole is in a state of flat sales. Moreover, in the traditional off-season of May, June and July, the sales of MDF are even more difficult.

　　 Facing the flat MDF market, dealers who do low-end or mid-to-high-end MDF uniformly stated that their profits are now very thin, but as long as someone takes the goods, regardless of the batch size, they will sell them to the other party. "Business is difficult now, and our profit is very low. Now few customers take the goods and generally the quantity of goods is not large. We still do this kind of business, as long as we don't lose money, we will sell", a MDF distributor in Guangzhou Yuzhu Shang said.

According to the reporter’s understanding, both manufacturers and distributors in the MDF industry are looking forward to the off-season sales, waiting patiently, and in order to survive, they will use their skills, or they can set production according to market demand, or develop regular customers. The market mainly receives cash, or uses funds to continue to support the rain in the off-season, waiting for the market to improve.

　　 There are also optimistic industry insiders who analyze that although export and domestic sales are now full of difficulties and the domestic housing market is also in a downturn, consumers still have demand for furniture whether they are changing from big houses to small houses or small houses to big houses.

　　The dawn of economic revitalization is about to emerge

　　 The once-in-a-hundred-year international financial crisis is like a deep black cloud over the world economy, rolling over and spreading. In an anxious atmosphere and heavy shadows, the dawn of economic revitalization is about to emerge.

　　 In response to the crisis, countries around the world have successively introduced a series of policies to stabilize finance and stimulate the economy. In November last year, the Chinese government made a decisive decision and quickly introduced ten measures to expand domestic demand and promote economic growth, and formulated and improved a series of policies to maintain growth, expand domestic demand, and adjust structure in a timely manner, forming a systematic and complete promotion of stable and rapid economic growth. Package plan.

　　 Race against time, race against the adverse effects of the financial crisis, expand domestic demand, stabilize and promote external demand, and strive to maintain steady and rapid economic growth in China-this is the core content of the package.

　　 People have noticed that in the past six months or so, the State Council has convened 33 consecutive executive meetings to study and discuss 74 issues. Among them, 31 meetings and 51 topics are directly related to the response to the international financial crisis.

　　 In the face of the sharp decline in external demand, the overall expansion of domestic demand has become the focus of policy. Since my country implemented a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy in the fourth quarter of last year, the central government has increased its public investment. On the basis of increasing the central government’s public investment of 104 billion yuan at the end of 2008, the central government’s public investment in 2009 was 908 billion yuan, an increase of 485.7 billion yuan to accelerate the construction of affordable housing, rural "water, electricity, and gas houses" and other people’s livelihoods. Engineering, major infrastructure construction, health education and other social undertakings, energy conservation, emission reduction and ecological environment construction, independent innovation and structural adjustment, post-Wenchuan earthquake recovery and reconstruction, etc. As of April 30, the central government's public investment in 2009 has allocated 518.9 billion yuan, and the implementation progress is 57%.

　　 Consumer demand is the final demand, and investment to promote consumption is an important fulcrum of this package. From providing huge financial subsidies to encourage home appliances to the countryside and agricultural machinery to the countryside, to further reducing the tax burden of enterprises and individuals, from actively expanding the housing, automobile, and rural consumer credit markets, to promoting the reform of the medical and health system to reduce the burden of residents’ medical care, from increasing Farmers’ income, improvement of the treatment of teachers in elementary and middle schools, to raising the level of basic pensions for retirees and urban and rural subsistence allowances, all of the “real money” fiscal expenditures, and the deployment of unprecedented measures have become China’s response to the international financial crisis. A weapon to promote stable and rapid economic development.

　　 While expanding domestic demand, striving to maintain external demand is also the direction the government has been striving for. According to figures released by the General Administration of Customs on May 12 this year, although the total value of China’s foreign trade imports and exports fell by more than 20% year-on-year in the first four months, after the month-on-month increase in imports and exports in March, China’s imports and exports increased again in April. Foreign trade shows signs of stabilization.

　　 Since 2009, my country has fully implemented the reform of value-added tax, so enterprises can reduce their burdens by 120 billion yuan a year. According to estimates, a large-scale structural tax reduction policy can reduce the burden on enterprises and residents by about 500 billion yuan a year.

　　 Fan Jianping, chief economist of the National Information Center, said that by focusing on adjusting the structure of domestic and external demand, my country will accelerate the formation of a pattern where domestic demand is the mainstay and external demand is actively used to jointly promote economic growth, and the economy will shift to a more balanced development mode.

At the same time, the latest survey report published by the Federation of Hong Kong Industries on more than 100 Hong Kong-funded enterprises in the Pearl River Delta on May 26 showed that the Pearl River Delta economy has begun to show signs of recovery. Nearly half of the interviewed companies said that since May, factories have Orders are on the rise, factory employment has stabilized and layoffs have stopped. However, most of the interviewed companies also held a conservative attitude towards the second half of the year. "Since May, the situation has improved significantly, some companies have started to increase orders, factory employment has also begun to stabilize, and the wave of layoffs has gradually subsided." Liu Zhanhao, vice chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries and chairman of the Pearl River Delta Industry Association, said that the government introduced A series of supporting policies, major exporting countries such as Europe and the United States have bottomed out and stabilized, and retail department store inventories are basically digested. The most difficult time for enterprises has passed.

　　 Persistence is victory, see rainbow after wind and rain!